Empoli vs Torino Prediction and Betting Tips

Empoli vs Torino Prediction and Tips. We expect very tough match between Empoli and Torino in Serie A. Empoli play at home and then they play very strong in defense line. Also on the other side Torino play very strong defense and we expect match without many chances and goals. Torino lost their last four away matches in Serie A but they can do a lot on this match. Empoli are undefeated in their last nine home matches against Torino in all competitions. Torino conceded at least two goals in six of their last seven away matches in Serie A. Before few days they won on away match in Europa League. Have a nice betting Monday and good luck in earning money.

Missing players:

Empoli has only two missing players for match against Torino. Vincent Laurini and Tiberio Guarente are injured and they will not play on this match. All other players are ready for the match against Torino.

On the other side Torino has little more missing players for this match. Salvatore Masiello, Migjen Basha, Juan Sánchez Miño, Marco Benassi, Marcelo Larrondo and Giuseppe Vives are all injured and they can not help their team on this match against Empoli. All other players are ready and fully fit for match and believe that they can earn points on this match.

Possible starting lineups:

Empoli: Sepe; Rui, Tonelli, Rugani, Hysaj; Vecino, Valdifiori, Croce; Verdi, Tavano, Maccarone

Torino: Gillet; Maksimovic, Glik, Moretti; Peres, Farnerud, Gazzi, Kaddouri, Darmian; Quaqliarella, Amauri

Empoli vs Torino. Prediction and betting tips.

We expect very tough match between Empoli and Torino. We believe that we will not see lots of goals on this match. Empoli play at home and they have a little more chance for win on this match, but Torino play very strong in defense line. So our prediction and betting tips for match Empoli vs Torino Prediction: Under 2.5 goals.

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Chelsea winning the Premier League title this season will be tougher than when I was at Arsenal, says Cesc Fabregas

Cesc Fabregas believes it was easier to win the Premier League title during his days as an Arsenal player than it is now.

The 27-year-old has starred for Chelsea since his £30million summer move from Barcelona this summer.

The Spain midfielder has scored once and laid on 11 assists in the league as Jose Mourinho’s side sit three points clear of champions Manchester City at the top of the table.

Chelsea have only tasted defeat once in the Premier League so far this campaign, but despite their impressive record Fabregas believes the standard of football in England is a lot more competitive than when he left Arsenal in 2011.

Fabregas, who did not make a single appearance when the Gunners last won the league in 2003-04, told Chelsea Magazine this month: ‘The league has improved since I left in 2011, especially defensively and also in terms of the stability that teams try to have — the coaches and teams are more afraid to drop points now.

‘I feel that for the top teams it is a bit more difficult to attack than it was before. Spain technically is a great league and maybe it’s still a little more tactical than England but that has improved a lot here.

‘That doesn’t mean in Spain it is more difficult to beat the opponent because in England — especially with the fans, passion and commitment — when we play away it is always difficult; all the teams want to attack.’

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Be consistent for achieving betting success

Most punters continue to lose on a regular basis because they are not emotionally prepared and don’t follow even the most basic betting essentials.

In order to have consistency when betting you need to follow a proven system. Even following a system there will be the occasional loss. Losing runs are an unavoidable part of racing. Even a really profitable system will have the odd losing run.

Systems rarely stay in profit all year round, there are just too many random factors in racing that can affect their performance. However systems offer us the best way of making consistent profits, and any sequence of losing bets will ultimately be followed by a sequence of winning ones. Once you understand this fact consistent profit will never be far away.

Most punters don’t use a system for long enough before they start to chop and change things so they never end up making any consistent profit. Very often they stop using a system after a few losses. Ultimately they revert back to their old stupid behaviour of no plan wagering.

Conversely punters that follow a proven system are informed and prepared, and have past experience of betting patterns. They know that any losing run encountered will not affect the long-term goal of making money. It’s the same for any other investment; such as ISAs or the Stock market, one month they are up and the next maybe down a little, but they perform well long-term if managed properly.

The dynamics of long-term investment aren’t as you would expect, and even bookmakers lose money. You have to have a “Positive Expectancy” which means although you may lose sometimes on the whole following a proven system you should expect your profits to outweigh your losses.

Learn to think with a “Positive Expectancy” and with a good plan you will succeed and be profitable in the long-term. It is important to keep your expectations realistic, focused and attainable. If you want instant wealth, forget racing and buy a lottery ticket. Bearing in mind the odds of actually winning the top prize in the simplest lotteries are an astounding 13,000,000 / 1.

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Bundesliga against the spread – Bayern come up short

Comparing Asian Handicaps with actual match results is a good way to judge how accurate the market is at predicting a team’s performance. The closing odds typically show the most accurate handicap prediction, and therefore if the actual match results are way-off, teams have been either over- or underrated by the betting public. Noticing patterns in these results can help you take advantage of them, and the market’s ignorance.

One such pattern is Bayern Munich. While the Bavarians have covered the spread 49.48% of the time, they failed to cover the spread 61.76% of the time in last year’s record-breaking season. Despite their exceptional form, they were over-rated and a poor team to back against the spread.

Wolfsburg (11th), Werder Bremen (14th) and Stuttgart (12th) all underperformed last season, which was reflected in their form against the handicap (spread) – Wolfsburg (64.71%), Werder Bremen (61.76%) and Stuttgart (61.76%) were the worst three ATS (against the spread) teams in the Bundesliga.

Hannover covered the spread on 67.65% of occasions last season, 11.77% more than Borussia Monchengladbach – the second most successful team ATS last season. This shows bookmakers and the markets consistently underestimated Hannover’s ability. This is an example of a team where there is value to be had betting on them against the spread by appreciating their value.

Both Augsburg and Freiburg pushed six times last season against the average of 2.6, which suggests the bookmakers and markets had a more accurate prediction of their ability in terms of the outcome of their games.

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Three great reasons to bet on the Bundesliga

Sustainability success for Dortmund & Freiburg

Another key question for bettors is will Dortmund and Freiburg sustain their form this season, or could changes cause them to be over or under rated?

Sustainability in soccer has always been an indicator for how successful teams perform year-on-year – Bayern have finished inside the top four in all of the last ten seasons, while Schalke have done so 70% of the time.

After surrendering their title to Bayern last season, Borussia Dortmund will be aiming to continue their fine form despite selling prize asset Mario Gotze to bitter rivals Bayern.

The BVB have finished inside the top five in 40% of the last ten seasons – all four of those appearances occurring in the previous four seasons. Manager Jurgen Klopp has built a squad based on youthful players, but what impact will the sale of Gotze have on the team?

To further Dortmund’s problems, top goal scorer over the past two seasons Robert Lewandowski has already announced he will leave for Bayern at the end of this season on a free transfer. What affect does this have on their sustainability?

Continually losing their best players makes a team reliant on producing replacement talent, however when that runs dry, so may their success.

Freiburg surprised many bettors last season by finishing fifth in the Bundesliga when they had averaged a 13th place finish in their last five seasons in the top flight.

However, success for a smaller team can see many players head for the exit before the start of the next campaign. So far this preseason Freiburg have lost six first team players on the back of their sensational performance last year.

Can Freiburg sustain their form, even if they don’t have the youth recruitment like Dortmund? If they can’t, then how much of an affect will it have?

Key Numbers – Pointers from the 2012/13 Bundesliga season

Last seasons Bundesliga was record breaking for a number of reasons, so here are a few key numbers that will interest bettors.

Despite having seven teams in the top 12 average attendances in European football, the Home Field Advantage (1.53 goals) – calculated by goals scored for the home team – on average for the Bundesliga is lower than the eight top domestic leagues around the world – Brazil, England, France, Italy, Holland, Portugal, Russia, Spain.

The 2012/13 Bundesliga season saw a huge 32% of away wins (matches won away from home), which has happened only once before since the Bundesliga’s inception in 1963. Bayern’s sensational season saw them win 88% of their away games, which could go some way to explaining why the value was so high.

In the Bundesliga last season though, 898 goals were scored at an average of 2.93 per game, which is more than seven big domestic leagues and only beaten by the Dutch Eredivisie (3.15 goals), while 56% of games saw more than three goals scored per game. In addition, an average of 1.34 goals per Bundesliga game were scored by the away side – more than every season since 1980/81.

Almost 3,000 corners were taken during last season, yet on average, a goal was scored every 46 corners (65 goals) – the lowest in the past decade. Corner and foul data is useful when betting live on the Bundesliga.

Despite fewer fouls committed throughout the season, the number of red cards increased. 64 red cards were issued – 50% of dismissals came as a result of second yellow cards – which was more than any season since 2003/04.

Movers & Shakers

Before betting on the new Bundesliga season be sure to research each team and find what transformations have happened during the close season to give yourself a chance of gaining an edge.

Despite losing a host of big players over recent years, Schalke remain one of the most consistent teams in the Bundesliga after rebuilding with youth. But with the sale of Lewis Holtby last year, how many more of their Wunderkind’s will be picked off?

Werder Bremen have appointed Robin Dutt as manager, a former youth manager at the German football federation. Dutt performed well at Freiburg – gaining promotion to the Bundesliga in 2007-08 but failed at Leverkusen. How will Dutt’s determination to succeed at Bremen affect their performance this season?

Wolfsburg were expected to challenge for the title last season, but struggled and finished 11th. After a failed second stint in charge, Dieter Hecking replaced Felix Magath. After winning the Bundesliga in 2009, can the Wolves return to genuine contenders this year?

Another reason to bet on the Bundesliga this season is that Pinnacle Sports have the highest limits, lowest margins and best odds.

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Ligue 1 Preview: Paris Saint-Germain vs Montpellier

Paris Saint-Germain’s record-breaking season comes to an end when the struggling Montpellier visit the French capital on Saturday.

With the Ligue 1 crown already wrapped up, the capital club turned their attention to achieving a new benchmark for the amount of points claimed in a Ligue 1 season, which stood at 84.

And they achieved it with one game to spare thanks to a 3-1 win at UEFA Champions League-chasing Lille last week, which moved them to 86 with a final three to play for.

Although they were knocked out in the quarter-finals of Europe’s premier club competition for the second year in a row, this campaign has represented a step forward for the Parisian outfit.

A more attacking brand of football has reaped rewards for coach Laurent Blanc, who saw his side wrap up the league title with three matches to spare.

They have also added the Coupe de la Ligue as the likes of Zlatan Ibrahimovic and Edinson Cavani have starred in the free-scoring side.

Ibrahimovic has netted 40 goals in all competitions for PSG this season, a club record, while their 12 away wins in Ligue 1 equalled an existing high.

The Sweden forward has not scored since March after suffering a hamstring injury but did return to the starting line-up against Lille.

And they can set a Ligue 1 record for most victories in a season if they are successful for a 27th time on Saturday.

While midfielder Yohan Cabaye appears set to miss with an ankle injury, he will be buoyed by his selection in France’s preliminary FIFA World Cup squad.

PSG team-mates Lucas Digne and Blaise Matuidi joined him in Didier Deschamps’ party.

Montpellier sit just two points clear of the relegation zone but are safe with fellow battlers Sochaux and Evian to face each other on the final day.

The 2012 champions have been in freefall since February 1, winning just three times, but they may appreciate playing under little pressure at the Parc des Princes.

Montpellier were responsible for knocking PSG out of the Coupe de France in the round of 32 and will take confidence from that shock win.

That result also came in Paris as goals from Daniel Congre and Victor Montano sealed a 2-1 triumph.

And Montpellier did get a point against PSG in the earlier league meeting this season, with the champions needing a Maxwell equaliser on the hour-mark to salvage a 1-1 draw.

A repeat looks unlikely, though, given their current form, while PSG will keen to break more records and finish on a high.

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What is Planning and Patience in sports betting

1. Planning

You must be prepared, have a plan.

“Without preparation you will fail before you begin.”

I can’t emphasise enough how important it is to be prepared. Without decent plans in place you won’t have any structure or rules to follow. Trial and error can be a very costly and painful experience that I definitely wouldn’t advise. In order to become successful at anything you definitely need to have a good plan laid out before you begin, without one failure can be assured.

Racing is no different than any other investment. Being prepared and following a good plan means knowing which type of races produce the best and most consistent results, which type of methods & systems to use on those races, and what kind of staking plans work best.

All races are not created equal…
You should definitely not bet in about 80% of them. Most defy rational form analysis and produce very inconsistent results. However betting on the remaining suitable 20% will give you a far greater chance of success. After all that is how the most successful trainers get regular winners, by placing their best horses in races they have a very good chance of winning.

If you want to make consistent profits from racing, you need to be prepared, and have all the right tools and information available to you.

2. Patience

“You need plenty of patience to become a profitable punter”

We have all heard the saying patience is a virtue, now this probably applies to racing more than most things in life. Believe me when I say you need patience. Most punters have very little and think that they can place a few lucky bets each week to win loads of money using small stakes, if only. It is very unlikely that they will win anything on a regular basis and losses are pretty much assured. You can only expect a consistent return from your bets if have done your homework and follow a proven plan. Classic mistakes to list a few are betting on too many horses, betting in the wrong races or in combinations of silly bets like Tote exotics, Yankees, Scoop6 and Placepot etc. If you look in any bookie’s window, or on their web site you will see these types of bets are very heavily promoted because they make an absolute lorry load of cash week in week out.

The actual chances of winning these types of bets are very slim and the bookies know this. It’s the mania of mug punters, who might win a few hundred from a small stake once every couple of years if they are extremely lucky. Let’s face reality the odds are heavily in favour of the bookies.

One bet you rarely see the bookies advertise is the single, “why” you might ask? A single bet carefully chosen on the right horse in the right race will be successful more often than not, if the truth is known this is where our friends the bookies would love not to accept bets from the public.

This type of bet is where they lose the most money.

Look at the results at the end of any race day and you will see a fair amount of reasonably-priced favourites who have won their individual races. So if you want to profit long term from racing don’t bother with silly combination bets. They offer no value at all even if you do only use very small stakes.

“Remember be patient and wait for the right races to come along before you decide to place a bet, this takes a lot of discipline. Believe me it will definitely be worth it, because you will begin to profit almost instantly.”

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Don’t bet on the “Something for Nothing” method

There are those who believe that sports betting is the ultimate something-for-nothing activity. But in reality, betting pro football to win is a business and must be treated like one to be successful.

The basics of making money at this business are that the lines put out by the oddsmakers are made not to predict the actual outcomes of games, nor to educate the public about the relative strengths of teams, but to try to split the betting public by making one team as attractive as the other. Since the public’s view of a match-up is occasionally incorrect, lines are sometimes incorrect in terms of the real differences between two teams.

A professional bettor looks for these incorrect lines. When he finds such lines he wagers on them—and that is the only time he wagers.

And how does a winning handicapper find those inaccurate lines?

By dispassionately viewing as many games as possible, as well as post-game coverage of match-ups you couldn’t tune in to. By keeping records of scores, lines, injuries and game statistics for later research. By analysis of game stats and the tracking of motivational factors. By educating yourself on how oddsmakers set lines so you are able to detect real value. And most important, by shopping aggressively for the best possible lines on games you’ve decided to bet.

Virtually all of the successful sports bettors I know work hard at handicapping. We don’t just roll out of bed and make bets. We don’t go by “inside information.” The information I use is available to anyone who makes the effort to get it. To profit from handicapping the NFL, you should expect to make a similar effort. ´
– See more at: http://www.casinocenter.com/the-6-big-myths-of-sports-betting/#sthash.cAYzTDSI.dpuf

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West Brom vs Arsenal Betting Preview

After giving their Champions League ambitions a boost with a 2-0 victory over Borussia Dortmund in midweek, Arsenal will be aiming to get their Premier League campaign back on track when they travel to the Hawthorns to take on West Brom on Saturday.

The Gunners come into this match in eighth place after suffering two consecutive defeats but are 4/5 (1.80) favourites with William Hill to bounce back with a win here.

With just one home win to their name in six league matches this season, Alan Irvine’s men are available at 18/5 (4.60) to pull off a shock victory this time out.

The last two meetings between the sides at this stadium have both finished 1-1, and you can get odds of 16/5 (4.20) on them playing out another draw in this one.

As is so often the case with Arsene Wenger, the victory over Dortmund arrived just as the pressure was reaching a crescendo.

The Frenchman seems to have a knack of pulling results out of the bag just at the right moment, and that win will have given his team some much-needed confidence just when they needed it the most.

Those reinvigorated players should now travel to the Midlands in strong shape to take on a team they can usually rely upon to surrender the points, having beaten them in five of the last seven league encounters, losing none.

Although less high profile than their guests’ struggles, the Baggies have endured a difficult run themselves of late – losing four and winning just one of the last seven matches in all competitions.

Therefore, while this may not be a good to time to play against Arsenal, a West Brom team bereft of confidence should provide fairly amenable opposition at present, with those 4/5 (1.80) odds looking like good value on them extending the visitors’ losing streak to three in a row.

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Why The Gambling House wins


You run out of money before you have a chance to let the law of large numbers work for you. They are banking on your lack of discipline. That’s the main reason (not bad picking) that most sports bettors lose and why The House laughs to the bank.

Check out this story as an illustration…
A Tale of Two Sports Bettors

Risky John and Conservative Bob each started the season with $1000 – their bankroll. They both decided to play the same games throughout the season but they couldn’t agree on how much to place on each game. John was more of a risk taker than Bob so John decided to bet about $200 per game (20% of his bankroll). Bob was more conservative and decided to risk about $50 per game (5% of his bankroll). Risky John figured that if he bet more, he could win more. And he was right. In week one, their picks went 4-2. John was up $360 while Conservative Bob only won $90. John was very pleased with himself.

Week 2 produced the exact same result. Risky John now had a $1720 bankroll while Conservative Bob was up to just $1180. John was very happy. He encouraged Bob to bet more but Bob wasn’t so sure about that strategy. What if their luck started to turn? Risky John preferred to think positively. Besides, they were 8-4 and they knew what they were doing! The first two weeks had proved that.

But then came weeks 3 and 4 in which they went 2-4, 1-3. A bad run for sure, but not uncommon during a 16-week season. In fact, losing streaks are inevitable and guaranteed during a season. Conservative Bob lost $235 while Risky John gave back $940. John now had a lower bankroll than Bob! John was now down to $780. Risky John felt the losing couldn’t possibly continue so he stuck with his bet size of $200 per game. The next two weeks they went 2-2 and 1-3.

Guess what? Risky John was now virtually wiped out – down to $280. Bob, meanwhile lost $360 on the terrible four week run but still had $820 left over. One of them was virtually out of money, the other had over 80% of his original bankroll left.

What happened next? Well, John quit. And, the unfortunate four-week run was followed by a great 3-week run where Conservative Bob went 10-3 and another 8 weeks of hitting a very respectable 56% on average. Bob ended up the season at over $1300 – an increase of 30% on his initial bankroll.

The morale of this story is obvious but very few sports bettors practice it. Don’t overextend yourself:
Wunderdog’s Law of Sports Betting: Don’t bet too big for your bankroll!

It is very tempting to put down a lot on each game, especially when you are winning. It is relatively boring to put down a little. But, you need to work within your bankroll, whatever that is. There will be bad streaks and good streaks in sports betting. It is inevitable if you do it for any extended period of time. Do yourself the favor of allowing yourself to “stay in the game.” Don’t miss out on that late-season run of luck because you are out of the game too early.

If your bankroll (amount you have set aside to bet with) is $10,000 and your average bet is more than $300, you are betting too much. If you have $1,000 to bet with and your average bet size is $30, you are betting too much. If your bankroll is $500 and you bet more than $15 per game, you are betting too much.

The silver lining in all of this is that YOU CONTROL THE SINGLE BIGGEST IMPEDIMENT TO LOSING. Let me say that again – regardless of how you pick games or whether someone helps you, you have the ability to erase the single biggest reason you may lose. All you need to do is practice safe money management.
So, how much you should you lay per game?

It depends, of course, on your bankroll (how much you are willing and able to lose over the course of the season). But there is a simple rule that applies regardless of whether you are a ten-dollar per game bettor or a one-thousand-dollar per game bettor: Bet around 1-2% of your bankroll on average and don’t ever bet more than 3-4% of your bankroll on any given game on which you have even or close to even odds. On rare occassions where you are sure your chance of winning the game is extremely high (i.e. moneyline favorites), a higher % of bankroll is very occassionally warranted. But, for most bets in which you have even odds, 3-4% is your upper max, and your average needs to stay around 1-2%. There are no locks. Let me repeat that – there is no such thing as a sure thing. Any bet can lose. Losing streaks can and do happen. Even in a season where you hit 60% overall, you’ll have weeks where you hit 40%. It’s an absolute certainty.

Can you make money with this strategy? Absolutely. In fact, its required to make money. Without this strategy, you will consistently lose regardless of how well you pick games. If you hit 54-58% (what you should expect), you will lose a lot of money (and maybe even deplete your entire bakroll) if you are betting more than 2% (on average) of your bankroll per game!

If you are winning and on a great roll, your bets can increase and you can win even more. How? You can simply use a percentage of your remaining bankroll. As your bankroll increases, your bet size increases. As your bankroll decreases, your bets decrease. A nice side benefit of this is that, by definition, you can never get wiped out. It is mathematically impossible to lose your entire bankroll if you are always betting a small percentage of it.

The bottom line: Remember, bet around 1-2% of your bankroll on average per game. If you aren’t as sure on a game, drop it to 0.5% and if you feel very good about a game, take it up to 3%. For those rare games that you absolutely love, you might go a tad higher but never risk more than 3-4% under any circumstances.

I rate my picks as 0.5 to 2.5 units and I recommend you risk the following:

  • 0.5 unit – 0.5% of bankrol
  • 1 unit – 1% of bankroll
  • 1.5 units – 1.5% of bankroll
  • 2 units – 2% of bankroll
  • 2.5 units – 2.5% of bankroll

So, you are always risking between 1% and 3% of your bankroll, and about 1.5% on average.

Still not convinced that betting a small % of your bankroll is the way to go? Then please read my article on what winning feels like.

How much can you expect to win using my picks? Check out what you can expect.

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