Comparing Asian Handicaps with actual match results is a good way to judge how accurate the market is at predicting a team’s performance. The closing odds typically show the most accurate handicap prediction, and therefore if the actual match results are way-off, teams have been either over- or underrated by the betting public. Noticing patterns in these results can help you take advantage of them, and the market’s ignorance.
One such pattern is Bayern Munich. While the Bavarians have covered the spread 49.48% of the time, they failed to cover the spread 61.76% of the time in last year’s record-breaking season. Despite their exceptional form, they were over-rated and a poor team to back against the spread.
Wolfsburg (11th), Werder Bremen (14th) and Stuttgart (12th) all underperformed last season, which was reflected in their form against the handicap (spread) – Wolfsburg (64.71%), Werder Bremen (61.76%) and Stuttgart (61.76%) were the worst three ATS (against the spread) teams in the Bundesliga.
Hannover covered the spread on 67.65% of occasions last season, 11.77% more than Borussia Monchengladbach – the second most successful team ATS last season. This shows bookmakers and the markets consistently underestimated Hannover’s ability. This is an example of a team where there is value to be had betting on them against the spread by appreciating their value.
Both Augsburg and Freiburg pushed six times last season against the average of 2.6, which suggests the bookmakers and markets had a more accurate prediction of their ability in terms of the outcome of their games.