Sustainability success for Dortmund & Freiburg
Another key question for bettors is will Dortmund and Freiburg sustain their form this season, or could changes cause them to be over or under rated?
Sustainability in soccer has always been an indicator for how successful teams perform year-on-year – Bayern have finished inside the top four in all of the last ten seasons, while Schalke have done so 70% of the time.
After surrendering their title to Bayern last season, Borussia Dortmund will be aiming to continue their fine form despite selling prize asset Mario Gotze to bitter rivals Bayern.
The BVB have finished inside the top five in 40% of the last ten seasons – all four of those appearances occurring in the previous four seasons. Manager Jurgen Klopp has built a squad based on youthful players, but what impact will the sale of Gotze have on the team?
To further Dortmund’s problems, top goal scorer over the past two seasons Robert Lewandowski has already announced he will leave for Bayern at the end of this season on a free transfer. What affect does this have on their sustainability?
Continually losing their best players makes a team reliant on producing replacement talent, however when that runs dry, so may their success.
Freiburg surprised many bettors last season by finishing fifth in the Bundesliga when they had averaged a 13th place finish in their last five seasons in the top flight.
However, success for a smaller team can see many players head for the exit before the start of the next campaign. So far this preseason Freiburg have lost six first team players on the back of their sensational performance last year.
Can Freiburg sustain their form, even if they don’t have the youth recruitment like Dortmund? If they can’t, then how much of an affect will it have?
Key Numbers – Pointers from the 2012/13 Bundesliga season
Last seasons Bundesliga was record breaking for a number of reasons, so here are a few key numbers that will interest bettors.
Despite having seven teams in the top 12 average attendances in European football, the Home Field Advantage (1.53 goals) – calculated by goals scored for the home team – on average for the Bundesliga is lower than the eight top domestic leagues around the world – Brazil, England, France, Italy, Holland, Portugal, Russia, Spain.
The 2012/13 Bundesliga season saw a huge 32% of away wins (matches won away from home), which has happened only once before since the Bundesliga’s inception in 1963. Bayern’s sensational season saw them win 88% of their away games, which could go some way to explaining why the value was so high.
In the Bundesliga last season though, 898 goals were scored at an average of 2.93 per game, which is more than seven big domestic leagues and only beaten by the Dutch Eredivisie (3.15 goals), while 56% of games saw more than three goals scored per game. In addition, an average of 1.34 goals per Bundesliga game were scored by the away side – more than every season since 1980/81.
Almost 3,000 corners were taken during last season, yet on average, a goal was scored every 46 corners (65 goals) – the lowest in the past decade. Corner and foul data is useful when betting live on the Bundesliga.
Despite fewer fouls committed throughout the season, the number of red cards increased. 64 red cards were issued – 50% of dismissals came as a result of second yellow cards – which was more than any season since 2003/04.
Movers & Shakers
Before betting on the new Bundesliga season be sure to research each team and find what transformations have happened during the close season to give yourself a chance of gaining an edge.
Despite losing a host of big players over recent years, Schalke remain one of the most consistent teams in the Bundesliga after rebuilding with youth. But with the sale of Lewis Holtby last year, how many more of their Wunderkind’s will be picked off?
Werder Bremen have appointed Robin Dutt as manager, a former youth manager at the German football federation. Dutt performed well at Freiburg – gaining promotion to the Bundesliga in 2007-08 but failed at Leverkusen. How will Dutt’s determination to succeed at Bremen affect their performance this season?
Wolfsburg were expected to challenge for the title last season, but struggled and finished 11th. After a failed second stint in charge, Dieter Hecking replaced Felix Magath. After winning the Bundesliga in 2009, can the Wolves return to genuine contenders this year?
Another reason to bet on the Bundesliga this season is that Pinnacle Sports have the highest limits, lowest margins and best odds.